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We strongly hope Barack Obama loses the 2012 elections.

Americans (including yours truly), who thronged the polls to elect Obama in 2008 have felt totally betrayed by this turncoat.

On virtually every issue, Obama has not showed sufficient backbone in pushing back the Republican opposition to his policies.

Nor has he been bold in addressing the problems bedeviling the economy and the Great Depression of the 21st Century that has caused enormous anguish and untold hardship to millions of Americans.

So, is it any surprise then that average Americans are sick of Obama when it comes to the economy.

A recent Harris Poll shows how badly Obama has slipped on the economy:

Obama in a Bind on the Economy

If things are pretty grim today, Americans increasingly are also pessimistic that things will get any better in the coming year.

The below table is a good indicator of the mood of the American people on how they see the future.

Less than a quarter of Americans expect that the economy will improve in the next 12 months.

Obama Fails on Economy

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So, you think U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is a smart fellow because he’s in the news all the time lately following the collapse of the U.S. financial system.

As the heavens was falling over America, here’s what this dodo had to say over the last few months:

It’s a safe banking system, a sound banking system. Our regulators are on top of it. This is a very manageable situation. (July 20, 2008)

There’s no doubt that things feel better today, by a lot, than they did in March. (early May 2008)

 Looking forward, I expect that financial markets will be driven less by the recent turmoil and more by broader economic conditions and, specifically, by the recovery of the housing sector. (May 16, 2008)

Source: New York Times (12 October, 2008, Sunday Business Section, P.2)

Bottomline: The next time some big guy in a suit says something in an authoritative tone, be skeptical because the fella may not have the faintest clue what he’s talking about.

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A new report by the World Bank and International Finance Corporation places India at a shameful No-122 in the ease of doing business.

India ranks behind countries like Ethiopia, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Uganda in the 2009 ranking on the ease of doing business.

India did slightly better (Rank: No-120) in the 2008 Doing Business study.

While the study does indicate whether a government is creating a regulatory environment more conducive to operating a business it Continue reading »

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On Monday, the Indian stock market sent a strong message of the economic vibrancy in the country to visiting U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson by driving the BSE Sensex to a record high of 20,000 points.

The BSE Sensex is an index of 30 large and actively traded stocks on the Bombay Stock Exchange.

After hitting a high of 20,024.87 in intra-day trading, the market ended up 3.82%, or 734.5 points, to close at 19,977.97. It was the third-biggest single day gain for the Sensex.

Traders were optimistic about rate cuts at the U.S. Fed meeting on Wednesday. Domestic institutional investors were also active in the market.

The Sensex has gained 2,417.69 points or 13.77% in six days.  

Over the last 10 months, the rise in the Sensex – which ended 2006 at 13,786.91 – has been amazing.

The Indian economy and its stock market has been growing gangbusters just as the U.S. economy is in a meltdown because of the self-inflicted sub-prime mortgage disaster, high oil prices, Iraq catastrophe and effete political leadership. 

Religare Securities president for equities Amitabh Chakraborty told Reuters:

India is no longer an option but a compulsion for an overseas investor, and money will flow like water as we are a very lucrative market. 

Coincidentally, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson was in Bombay, India’s commercial capital, on Monday to address the U.S.-India CEO Forum Infrastructure Conference.

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Kerala is that odd state in India with a high rate of literacy and life expectancy, higher quality of life compared to other Indian states and possibly the highest rate of migration of its people in search of better prospects.

The Kerala model of high investment by the state in education and healthcare for its population has been touted as a humane alternative to market-driven development where people become mere commodities in the rush for profits.

But with few industries or service sector opportunities in Kerala unlike neighboring states like Karnataka or Tamil Nadu, the leftist-oriented state has several million migrants working in other Indian states or abroad, mostly in the Middle East. We’ve personally encountered natives from Kerala working in Cologne (Germany), Chicago, New York and elsewhere.

The Kerala model and the migration of its people is the subject of an interesting New York Times article in its Friday edition:

“Remittances from global capitalism are carrying the whole Kerala economy,” said S. Irudaya Rajan, a demographer at the Center for Development Studies, a local research group. “There would have been starvation deaths in Kerala if there had been no migration. The Kerala model is good to read about but not practically applicable to any part of the world, including Kerala.”

Can the Kerala model resonate well without the $5 billion that its workers send into the state every year. Probably not.

And what about the social cost of migration on those left behind. Suicides are apparently very high in the state, according to the NYT piece.

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China will continue to remain the preferred investment destination for businesses – not India – over the next five years, according to a new report.

China will continue to significantly outpace India in attracting foreign direct investment between now and 2011, according to the report from the Economist‘s Economist Intelligence Unit.

FDI inflows into India are set to grow further over the medium term, but will remain well below potential because of continuing political resistance to privatisations, inflexible labour laws and poor infrastructure.

In contrast, China will have projected inflows of $87 billion in FDI per year in 2007-11, according to the report.

India is attracting greater FDI in the services sector but apparently seeing declining FDI in manufacturing.

The new report is titled World Investment Prospects to 2011: Foreign direct investment and the challenge of political risk and produced jointly by the Economist Intelligence Unit and Columbia Program on International Investment.

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